A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
